Transportation Troubleshooting: How Close Is U.S. Transition to Zero-Emissions Trucks?

After a surge in capital investment and hiring in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic, the trucking industry has struggled for the last 18 months with lower demand, declining freight rates and increasing diesel prices. So it may seem premature to ask the trucking industry to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs) by adopting expensive new electric and hydrogen vehicles.

But the Biden Administration still hopes to achieve this ambitious and worthy goal, and with careful approaches to implementation, it’s certainly attainable. In its National Blueprint for Transportation Decarbonization, the administration aims for 30 percent of medium- and heavy-duty vehicle (MHDV) sales by 2030 to be zero-emission vehicles and 100 percent by 2040.

That first target is just six years away, and the most-recent data I found from the International Energy Agency shows that in 2022, only 1.2 percent of MHDVs sold worldwide were electric—and the vast majority were in China. Can we realistically expect the U.S. trucking industry to transition nearly one-third of annual truck sales to electric or hydrogen in six years?

Expert Consultation

For a reality check on what’s happening in zero-emission trucking, I consulted with Dr. Sebastian E. Guerrero, WSP’s national practice lead for freight planning and economics. In a company full of highly skilled people, he’s exceptionally qualified to tackle this subject. He has been consulting and researching in the trucking sector for 15 years, including obtaining a doctoral degree from the University of California, Berkeley, researching how to reduce trucking GHGs. Guerrero shared his view of the challenges that need to be overcome to accelerate zero-emission trucking deployments.

“There’s a lack of charging infrastructure to support electric trucking,” he explains. “For trucking companies, the capital cost premiums for electric trucks are quite high.”

But Guerrero and his colleagues don’t expect zero-emissions trucks to take over long-haul trucking anytime soon. Instead, the first two trucking segments to convert to zero-emission technologies will likely be short-haul and delivery segments—where Amazon, UPS and others are already buying electric trucks—and in drayage, transferring goods short distances to and from ocean ports and rail terminals. Both uses can most easily be adapted to the shorter range of electric vehicles as compared to gasoline or diesel vehicles.

“Drayage trucks also operate in densely populated urban environments, where diesel pollution is a major concern for the predominantly low-income communities typically adjacent to ports or rail terminals,” adds Guerrero.

To reduce ambient air pollution and GHGs, the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach subsidized two trucking companies to deploy more than 20 Peterbilt and Volvo electric trucks for drayage. California law now requires all newly registered drayage trucks serving ports to be zero-emission, with a full phase-out of fossil fuel trucks at ports slated for 2035.

Hyping Hydrogen

Although hydrogen technology hasn’t gained much traction in the light-duty vehicle segment, its use to decarbonize trucking fleets is gaining new prominence. In January 2024, the North Texas Council of Governments received a $70 million grant from the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law Charging and Fueling Infrastructure (CFI) initiative to build five hydrogen fueling stations for MHDVs in Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, Austin, San Antonio and Waco. The council of governments envisions this as the start of a hydrogen corridor for trucks that will stretch all the way to Southern California.

That round of CFI grants provided $623 million nationwide for EV charging and alternative fuel infrastructure, part of $2.5 billion in total CFI funding. Like the $5 billion National Electric Vehicle Infrastructure formula program, CFI funding is primarily directed at building light-duty vehicle charging capacity. For the trucking industry, the Environmental Protection Agency will make about $1 billion available through grants authorized in the Inflation Reduction Act for a Clean Heavy-Duty Vehicle Program.

“We know that the funded activities will engage a wide range of stakeholders, especially electric utilities, local governments, logistics firms and investors in charging infrastructure,” notes Guerrero. “The most recent NOFO (Notice of Funding Opportunity) prioritizes emissions reductions, setting up a performance measurement plan and disadvantaged communities/environmental justice.”

Guerrero and his collaborators are doing groundbreaking research to target cost-effective deployment of MHDV charging infrastructure. Using truck telematics and GPS data, they’re developing methods to identify the types of trucking that can be electrified most cost-effectively, where MHDV charging stations should be located, and other key parameters.

In a study for the Rhode Island Department of Administration—which was presented at the 2023 TRB conference—they used Geotab ITS data to track which trucks returned to park overnight in the same locations, the density of truck deliveries and other factors to identify the best places to put charging stations.

“This type of data and analysis will be key to managing risks, assessing performance in real-time and course-correcting where needed,” says Guerrero.

After talking with Guerrero, I’m much more optimistic about the rapid growth potential of zero-emission trucking.